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| Post Number: 41
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| Post Number: 42
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Liberal 
Group: Moderator
Posts: 11451
Joined: Aug. 2003
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Posted on: Aug. 31 2011,3:12 pm |
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You're not very good with numbers, or logic. The approval index is not only the liberals, there are liberals that disapprove of the job he's doing because they feel that he's moved to the right. 
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The people are masters of both Congress and courts, not to overthrow the Constitution, but to overthrow the men who pervert it!
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| Post Number: 43
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Stone-Magnon
Group: Members
Posts: 1540
Joined: Dec. 2010
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Posted on: Aug. 31 2011,3:35 pm |
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Yep, even the GOP doesn't believe their own drug war crap. Obama made a huge error making health scare the #1 issue. It's the economy stupid. I'd rather have 3rd party type this time around and explains why Ron Paul is blowing up. Most people are fed up with both parties and that's the real truth. Ross P's giant sucking sound came true. All we have left is a government employed middle class that can't be sustained. It's over people.
Asia is where it's at now...the future shot past us as we were persecuting each other over pot.
What's even more amazing is how Nixon was exactly right and in 100 years what he said will come true and be seen as the Zenith or tipping point when we peaked.
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...everybody must get stoned
-Bob Dylan
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| Post Number: 44
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| Post Number: 45
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jimhanson
Group: Moderator
Posts: 8491
Joined: Aug. 2003
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Posted on: Sep. 02 2011,4:38 pm |
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ALC-- QUOTE The Keys are statements that favor the re election of the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party wins. When six or more are false, the challenging party wins. 1.Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.2.Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. 3.Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. 4.THIRD PARTY: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. 5.Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.6.Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.7.POLICY CHANGE: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. 8.SOCIAL UNREST: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. 9SCANDAL: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. 10.Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. 11.Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. 12.INCUMBENT CHARISMA: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. 13.Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki...e_HouseThe Keys forecasted the popular-vote winners of all seven presidential elections from 1984 through 2008.. Obama has 4 that are false.. Say Hello to your two term President, Barack Hussein Obama..
I would challenge your assumptions. In addition to the 4 "gimmees" that you list as false (meaning, in Obama's favor) I would add the ones I've listed in BOLD.
Here's the rationale:
4. Third Party--There IS a third party--the Tea Party--and they have been highly effective--perhaps the MOST effective in the 2010 elections. I don't think the Repubs would have done nearly so well by themselves.
7. Policy Change. While Obama did change policy, in this case, the majority of the people view him as changing it for the WORSE, not better--witness, Obamacare--where the majority of the voters want it repealed. In this case, policy change will work against him.
8. Social Unrest. There is perhaps more social unrest and division in the country than at any time since the 60s.
9. Scandal. Gunwalker is getting bigger all of the time. Obama's far left "Czars" have been an embarrassment--as have his handling of the "Cash for Clunkers"--the "Porkulus" spending, and the nationalization of the car companies. Obama's ties to ACORN and SEIU have been a big part in his plummeting poll ratings, as has his naivete in foreign affairs. Then, there's Joe Biden's gaffes.
12. Incumbent Charisma. The Obama Charisma has long since left the building, as reflected by his falling poll numbers. The defections are made even worse by the fact that the dissatisfaction is NOT coming from conservatives (they didn't vote for him anyway) but largely from independents that DID vote for him last time--and defecting Dems.
The net result? In addition to the 4 "false" premises you listed from Wiki, I'd add these 5. That's NINE strikes against him.
Barring a big war (where people tend to support the President) or a big reversal of the economy (fat chance of THAT), Obama will be a one-termer.
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"If you want to anger a Conservative, tell him a lie. If you want to anger a LIBERAL, tell him the TRUTH!"
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| Post Number: 46
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| Post Number: 47
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Liberal
Group: Moderator
Posts: 11451
Joined: Aug. 2003
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Posted on: Sep. 02 2011,4:59 pm |
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I'm sure he'd rather have his poll numbers than the GOP's poll numbers. 
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The people are masters of both Congress and courts, not to overthrow the Constitution, but to overthrow the men who pervert it!
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| Post Number: 48
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| Post Number: 49
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Liberal
Group: Moderator
Posts: 11451
Joined: Aug. 2003
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Posted on: Sep. 02 2011,5:23 pm |
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Scott "fox news pays my rent" Rassmussen?
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The people are masters of both Congress and courts, not to overthrow the Constitution, but to overthrow the men who pervert it!
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| Post Number: 50
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alcitizens
Albert Lea
Group: Members
Posts: 3664
Joined: Jul. 2009
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Posted on: Sep. 02 2011,5:59 pm |
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Never-Wrong Pundit Picks Obama to Win in 2012
“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” says Lichtman, the brains behind The Keys to the White House.
Lichtman’s prediction helps to explain a quirk in some polling that finds that while Americans disapprove of the president, they still think he will win re-election.
http://www.usnews.com/news...in-2012
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